Ph-Ch23:Reporting of Stocks

Forecasting - Meaning and significance

Content

Forecasting is a technique of predicting the future based on the results of previous data. It involves a detailed analysis of past and present trends or events to predict future events. It uses statistical tools and techniques. Therefore, it is also called Statistical analysis. Forecasting acts as a planning tool that helps to get ready for the uncertainty that can occur in the future.

Forecasting begins with management's experience and knowledge sharing.

Significance of Forecasting:

Provides reliable and relevant information about the present and past trends and future predictions that help in planning better.
Gives the confidence to take important decisions.
Helps in the handling of uncertainty efficiently
Optimal utilization
Managing stock out or surplus stocks
Helps in managing short expiry
Minimise Risk of Expiry
Helps in making the best managerial decisions

Resources

Assessment

Question	Answer 1	Answer 2	Answer 3	Answer 4	Correct answer	Correct explanation	Page id	Part of Pre-test	Part of Post-test
How often is the quantification process in undertaken at the central level?	Monthly	Quarterly	Annually	Half-yearly	3	As per the current Standard Operating Procedure Manual of Procurement & Supply Chain Management, Central TB Division, the quantification process in done on annual basis at the central level.		Yes	Yes

Forecasting the supply requirement

Content

These methods are used for forecasting the requirements of supplies:

The analysis can be performed by using the below mentioned tool.

Parameters to be Considered for Forecasting:

Stock in Hand
Average Consumption
Stock in pipeline
Buffer Stock
Lead time
Shelf Life of Supplies

Tools available for quantification in the National TB Elimination Programme (NTEP)

Under NTEP, the quantification tool is available on Nikshay Aushadhi portal, and can only be accessed by Central TB Division.

Resources

Assessment

Question	Answer 1	Answer 2	Answer 3	Answer 4	Correct answer	Correct explanation	Page id	Part of Pre-test	Part of Post-test
Who can access the quantification tool in Nikshay Aushadhi?	SDS Pharmacist	STO	DTO	CTD	4	The quantification tool available on Nikshay Aushadhi portal can only be accessed by Central TB Division.		Yes	Yes

Follow-up actions to forecasting of supplies

Content

Follow-up Actions for Forecasting of Supplies

Resources:

1. Practical Guide for the Quantification of Anti-TB Medicines: Guidelines for Quantification and Supply Planning for Procurement

Assessment

Question	Answer 1	Answer 2	Answer 3	Answer 4	Correct answer	Correct explanation	Page id	Part of Pre-test	Part of Post-test
Excess stock happens when	Forecasted consumption is more than the actual consumption	Forecasted consumption is less than the actual consumption	both	None	Forecasted consumption is more than the actual consumption	Excess stock happens when forecasted consumption is more than the actual consumption